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20120925
20121003
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line. this is true across many polls. you might see a margin of 20 points for mitt romney. you might see a margin of 22 points but nowhere do you see the outside margins that he needs to win the election. given how obama is doing among minority voters, given how he appears to be holding his support, maybe then some, among white college graduate voters. so that's where we are now. of course, as we know these elections in which you step into united states are not oddly enough decided just by the popular vote. that would be a weird and silly thing to do. instead we have this electoral vote system, you know the story. that means that the election really comes down specifically to the outcomes in a number of different swing or battleground states. this is the 2012 battleground as we laid it out in our first paper and basically you have six days in kind of the rust belt midwest area. you have three states out of the southwest, you have three states in the new south, north carolina, virginia and florida. the six days in the midwest rust belt area are much more heavily white than these other
, if he can hold his 52 percent among college white women, he is it 50 in our poll. romney has to win two-thirds of all of the whites to win, to get a national majority. now, he can do that. republicans were in that ballpark. but to give you a sense of what we hear talk about two-thirds among those other columns is what reagan wondering the most decisive plans live in modern times. so that is -- i will and the two quick points. there is a not entirely comforting message for democrats here as well. you know, the general trend here is allowing them to win a majority with a smaller number of whites and they used in the. there also winning a small majority. and the reality is, if you look at the last four times democrats have has unified control of government, each time they suffered a fairly catastrophic decline in their vote share among whites in the order of ten points to more which says they have not been ill to articulate a vision of activist government that can give broad support, especially the working class. but the working -- the other part of this is, you know, certainly going to be
for it to drive up the white working-class margin. that shows that romney is not doing any better. in some poll is he is making very little progress among white college graduates. basically, the state is looking very similar in terms of demographics. the same thing applies to the geographical distribution and how obama is running. definitely looking like romney might have a run. that's just not happening in michigan at this point. michigan is decisively on the side of obama. if you look at the geographical pattern of the vote. 44% in the detroit metro area, president obama had it in 2008. there is not much going on there for mitt romney. there is a three-point increase on the minority voters, seven-point decline among white, noncollege voters, eligible voters. these are huge changes and they go exactly against what is in the interest of the romney team. the romney team in wisconsin. maybe if they thought they would be able to take advantage what they believed to be this conservative white working-class voters by electing nominating paul ryan. they are making some progress, according to the poll
they see an ad about mitt romney's taxes, instead of just polling people and looking a the type of people who said they would move. and then so they have got tb to do a cycle of a few weeks to develop tests randomly assign and distribute the ads and measure the movement. and so at the end of, you realize, okay the people who are moving on the tax message, let's say with, you know, conservative retirees okay now let's go send these ads to conservative retirees, and that's a radical new way of both transferring some of these experimental techniques to measure persuasion, but also getting rid of all the sort of con ject really a hypothetical message testing that has been used in polls and focus groups and getting to something to get the behavior of change your mind. >> host: interesting. how expensive is this? how much money do the campaigns have to raise to really do this at leaflet you're talking about? >> guest: it's expensive. but i think that campaigns and invest intelligently in it will tell you it should pay for itself. and so, you know, one of the benefits of sort of microtargetting,
% a little one friday, if he can hold his 52% among the quote white women in the poll one friday, romney has to win two-thirds of all other whites to get in national a dirty. you can do that. republicans are in that ballpark in 2010. we get the sense of what he's talking about among the other quadrants it's what ronald reagan won in '84 during the most decisive landslide in the modern times. so, that is i will end with two quick points one for each party. there's the message for democrats here as well the general trend is a loving them to win a majority with a smaller number of whites, they are also winning the smaller majority of the whites, and the reality is reviewing the last four times they've identified the control of the government 65, 66 from 76 to 80, 93, 94 and the first two years of obama each time they suffered a fairly catastrophic decline in the vote share which says they've not been able to articulate the need broad support in the community especially the working class community the the other part, the republicans will certainly be a big point of the debate. it's entirely poss
decided. we know that texas is going to vote for mitt romney. we know that new york and california are going to vote for president obama. we just know that. that is -- national polls don't even help you very much. almost beside the point to the extent they include people from states which are not in any way competitive. what we know is that there are ten key states and three not city-state's. of those we know that indiana and north carolina are certain wines for mitt romney. democrats will try and tell you, were going to win north carolina. not even close. president obama won it. traditionally red sea state. an enormous turnout. it will not be able to replicate. a lot of its independence and seven democrats that they would give the democrats try. i'm not worried about north carolina. it hit the indiana border. but those two in romney's column. as to when four plus one. he as to when these four states that i am about to mention, florida, ohio, and virginia. excuse me, three states. did so many, wisconsin, new hampshire. those are fundamentally favorable electrodynamics. i'm going to
are disproportionately -- not entirely -- men. and every poll that i've seen shows men favoring mitt romney. but another poll point in a slightly different direction. this is a group i have reported on, nascar fans. [laughter] nascar fans favor obama. by about seven points. which is quite remarkable if you've ever spent, as i have, a weekend at a nascar track eating chicken fried steak. that is remarkable. so there are some very mixed pictures here of those constituencies. colin kahl served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for the middle east from 2009 to 2011. he's currently a senior fellow at the center for new american security and a professor in the securities studies program at georgetown university. welcome, and my question to you is this: in light of events in egypt and libya, how can the administration defend itself response to the arab spring? >> well, you know, i think if you look back to the president's cairo speech in the summer of 2009, what he said was, you know, the united states had an interest, but a people of the region had an interest in moving towards more just, accountable a
landscape of corporate america even strong supporters of romney acknowledge that swing state polling numbers in the direction of economic data and markets adjust its time to brace for a second obama term. i want to ask you also about using the word brace in this story. jaczko yeah, i mean i think you know the president has had an antagonistic relationship with business. i think that's pretty clear and so he did over the last several months i think lose the independent vote and certainly the business vote and so the number show he is actually winning i could understand that now they are disappointed it does they were counting on the competition, but i don't think you can really tell right now. i mean it's hard to know how accurate these polls are. in some cases i think the media is pulling democrat and in other cases i think people, they don't necessarily tell you what they're thinking of what they want to do so it's probably likely that you know we see a very close race. it could be, could go either way. i'm just not sure right now how accurate those polls are but i understand the word race
street in the broader landscape of corporate america even strong supporters of romney acknowledged a swing state polling numbers in the direction of economic data and market suggests it is time to brace for a second obama term. i want to ask you about using the word grace in this story. >> yeah, i mean, i think that the president has had an antagonistic relationship with business. i think that is pretty clear. and so, he did over the last several months i think lose the independent vote and certainly the business vote. and so, if the numbers show he's actually winning, i could understand that now they are disappointed because they were counting on some competition. but i don't think you can really tell right now. i mean, it is hard to know how accurate these polls are. in some cases i think the media is pulling democrats. and in other cases, i think they don't necessarily tell you what they're thinking and what they want to do. so it is probably likely, you know, that we see a very commit very close race. you know, it could go either way. and just not sure right now how accurate th
but that does not turn out to be the case. when we look at polls, non college voters romney is nowhere close to driving up that margin among white working-class voters. he is in fact at best two points better than mccain in 2008 and doing no better among white college graduates so that is one reason why the state at this point looking favorable to barack obama and carry it by as much as he did in 2008 and also if you look at it geographically obama is doing well in the columbus area in the center which is the string -- swing region and holding support where it counts and that is true with a lot of state. this is pennsylvania which if the romney team could have put pennsylvania in play it would have been the key to a lot of things but the problem for them now is pennsylvania is looking very difficult. obama is running maybe ten point margin in the states. it is not happening for the romney campaign and it is back to what was their big hope to drive up the white working-class margin which as you see in 2008 was a 15 point advantage for john mccain but the polls out of pennsylvania again and ag
of tested messages historically is that you either have a poll that asks somebody who they support and tells them a bunch of information asked them again and you see if anybody moves are you ask them direct. if i told you that mitt romney had to pay taxes for x number of years would it make you more or less likely to vote for him? some people move or tell you that they would move. people telling you that they would move is a pretty sort of conjectural thing. i would not cognitively trust anybody who told you what they would do under a hypothetical scenario if they learned a permission. they may or may not already know and that is part of the polls that they asked people if you knew, you may or may not already know so in focus groups you bring somebody in and you have a dozen people and you show them and add an asked them again if they would change their mind and now you are prompting somebody to change their mind and they are being forced to watch an ad that they might otherwise tune out. so using these experimented form programs at the obama campaign has introduces them into the real world
Search Results 0 to 10 of about 11